Macklin woes should act as warning to Haye

If David Haye wasn’t already wary of the task that awaits him in Hamburg on Saturday, then he is now.

This past Saturday he saw a fellow Briton go into the German equivalent of the lion’s den, outbox a hugely popular titleholder and come away empty-handed.

That man was Matthew Macklin.

Macklin learnt the hard way that the age-old maxim about Germany being a “home” fighter’s territory is still entirely well-deserved.

Over 12 rounds, Macklin out-worked WBA middleweight strapholder and home favourite Felix Sturm. Whilst the latter’s power and accuracy were always a threat, Macklin consistently landed more punches in a tireless display.

His herculean effort went unrewarded. Sturm was the recipient of the sort of controversial split decision for which Germany is renowned.

There’s no denying that it was a close fight. But one could argue that the two judges who gave the fight 116-112 to Sturm were watching an entirely different sporting contest.

So what does this mean for the “Hayemaker”?

Ahead of his superfight with Wladimir Klitschko, much attention has been focussed on the strength of the combatants’ chins.

Haye supporters feel that the Bermondsey man has the brute force to KO a man who has been on the canvas twelve times in his career. Others believe that Haye, himself no stranger to the canvas, has never faced anyone with Klitschko’s knockout power.

The general feeling is that we’re in for an explosive contest and that Haye’s best chance of victory will come in those early rounds. Avoiding Klitschko’s merciless right hand at all costs, he needs to take big risks to get into range and land the big shots that will poleaxe the giant Ukrainian.

“Risk” is not a word one frequently associates with Haye’s trainer and mentor Adam Booth. Booth’s incredibly meticulous approach to boxing strategy has earned him the moniker “The Dark Lord” by his own fighters. His finest achievement of late came in the Groves-DeGale showdown. Thanks to Booth’s tactical mastery, the unfancied Groves nullified his more gifted rival en route to the tightest of tight points victories.

I expect Booth’s gameplan for Klitschko to centre around David’s speed and agility, not dissimilar to the tactic that earned Haye victory over Nikolai Valuev in 2009. That night the giant Russian barely landed a single punch. Haye danced his way to the title, landing infrequent jabs to the midsection in an effective, if uninspiring, display.

Yet Klitschko, schooled in recent years by legendary trainer Emanuel Steward, is no Valuev. His victims all testify that he’s quicker and more technical than they expected.

Under Steward’s guidance the crude, vulnerable style of old has been replaced by a more cautious, balletic approach. He’ll cut down the ring quickly and Haye won’t have the same wide open spaces to enjoy that he did against the cumbersome Valuev.

Even if Haye executes this gameplan perfectly, it’s likely that most rounds will be close affairs. Haye will land more frequently. But each of Klitschko’s shots will be roared on by his legion of fans, which will undoubtedly influence the officials.

David might find himself entirely at the mercy of the ringside judges in Germany. As Matthew Macklin will testify, that is a very dangerous place to be.

So what will it be; power or prudence?

Right now David Haye is stuck between a rock and a hard place.